JESC Month | Today’s the day! Ranking and predicting before Kyiv kicks off

By Jaz, November 30, 2013

Can anyone believe Amsterdam 2012 happened a whole year ago?

ME NEITHER! It cannot possibly be JESC time again already, because the last show was only, like, a few months ago, right?

Nope. The last year has gone so fast I don’t even think Barbara Popović could’ve kept up with it, and lo and behold…it IS time for Eurovision’s first-born to entertain us once again.

JESC turns eleven this year, and it’s a miracle it’s even happening. Thanks to the EBU, who are obviously very persuasive, or have zero qualms about bribing people with large amounts of money and/or chocolate, 12 artists from 12 countries are about to battle it out for that all-important trophy in the shape of Puzzle Man (and also for two others that look exactly the same). In just a few hours, I’ll be dragging myself out of bed to watch them in action, and you better be there with me. Not literally, of course, unless you happen to be in my ‘hood, in which case come over and bring all the sugary consumables you can carry.

I’m super excited for tonight’s show, particularly because it’s a hard one to predict, which means the voting sequence will be a nailbiter. Then again, I have enough trouble predicting…well, anything, so that makes things difficult. Still, I’m going to have a shot at guessing how things will go down tonight, just for you (‘you’ meaning ‘anyone who happens to stumble across this post’) and I’ll throw in some final pre-contest rankings and expectations as well.

The hours and minutes are ticking down, so let’s get cracking!

 

PS – RANDOM ALERT! Thought this does have a JESC link…I just wanted to mention that Sweden’s 2011 Junior representative, Erik Rapp, finished 3^rd in Swedish Idol last night. I’ve checked out some of his performances from the season, and some of the final two contestants, and I have to say, he was robbed of a place in next week’s final! Robbed, I tell you! Still, it’s great for him to have gotten so far, and with Sweden appreciating their finalists so much, he’s still got a chance to carve out a decent career for himself, á la Robin Stjernberg. I still have hope that a former JESC artist will win one of these talent shows one day.

PPS – This just in (sort of)! Malta’s 2008 Junior representative, Daniel Testa, has been confirmed as a semi-finalist in the Maltese NF for Eurovision 2014! Me so excited. Already I want him in Copenhagen, even over Fabrizio Faniello and the million other competitors who have tried to represent Malta more times than they’ve had hot dinners.

ANYWAY…

 

From reviews to rankings 

A couple of days ago I rounded off my 2013 reviews. If you haven’t checked them out yet, THERE’S STILL TIME! HURRY! I scored the whole class of Kyiv based on our beloved ESC point system, but I decided to keep you in suspense (ha ha) regarding a full, twelve-country ranking, until right now.

1. Ukraine

2. Belarus
3. Moldova
4. Russia
5. The Netherlands
6. Sweden
7. Armenia
8. San Marino
9. Georgia
10. Macedonia
11. Azerbaijan
12. Malta

Keep in mind that the only song I really dislike is Malta’s. I know it’s a fan favourite and everyone thinks it’s going to win, blah blah blah, but I’m entitled to stand apart from the crowd every now and then. Stand apart from them, all lonesome, weakly waving a mini Moldovan flag, it would seem.

Everybody wants their favourites to do well, but since Moldova is a lost cause and I have a bad feeling about Belarus, I’m relying on the host country to stop me from sinking into a deep depression (especially if Malta wins – then the depression would be brought on both by things not going my way and the generally moany vibe of The Start). But realistically, how do I think they’ll do?

 

Making (terrible) predictions

Okay, it’s crunch time, a.k.a. prediction o’clock. Before I begin, here’s a disclaimer: not only am I a notoriously inaccurate predictor, but since I never watch any Eurovision-related rehearsals (I’m not getting up at 2am to see something I’ve seen before) all of my guesses are based on feedback from those on the ground in Kyiv, as well as my own warped opinions.

With that said, this is how I think the scoreboard will look at the end of the evening:

1. The Netherlands – I type this knowing it doesn’t feel right, but that is how hard the predicting shebang has been this year. I certainly think it’s a possibility, though. The Netherlands have a catchy song, a concept (the whole twin thing…you may not have noticed) and by all accounts, an eye-catching stage show. They are also late in the draw and sandwiched between two much slower songs (Georgia and Malta. And that happened RANDOMLY, EBU) so there’s nothing stopping them from sticking out. If they don’t win, they’ll do very well.

2. Malta – going against the masses, I just don’t believe this has the power to reel in the most votes. It feels like a song that could easily come second or third to me. Plus, the closest thing to a ballad that’s ever won JESC is Nebo, and though there’s a first time for everything, I don’t reckon tonight will be the first time a traditional ballad snatches up the trophy (the first-place trophy, anyway).
3. Russia – plum draw, great song, not Katya Ryabova who is cursed to share her placing with someone else…Russia has the potential to outdo their 2012 result. Of course, the clichéd nature of the song could result in an epic fail, but I suspect that’s not a big enough issue to stand in their way.
4. Armenia – this one’s got more gimmicks than a gimmick store (man, I wish those existed) and a song that actually has Georgia written all over it. Unless Monika’s vocal is truly woeful, I can’t imagine a bad finish for her.

5. Georgia – I think we can all agree Give Me Your Smile ain’t Georgia’s best effort; but they’re still Georgia, and Georgia know how JESC is done. What the entry lacks in punch, The Smile Shop will no doubt make up for in vocal ability, fabulous costumes and a slick dance routine.  
6. Azerbaijan – a week ago, I’d have put this lower, but I’ve heard comments from those lucky people in Ukraine for the contest (who I’m totally not jealous of, BTW) that Rustam has the goods to make us all forget about the Omar & Suada incident. I still don’t think his song is that strong, but it’s gaining momentum.
7. Ukraine – I want this to do better, as I said, but there is a lot of competition, and I wonder if the song is a little too alternative in its construction to win the masses over. Sofia has a great voice (I’d listen to her over Gaia any day) and I hear her performance has been top-notch at rehearsals, so my fingers are still crossed.
8. San Marino – again, I’d love SM to make the top 5 in their first final. But Michele has an early draw, and there are stronger songs afterwards, so I’m inclined to place him just above the end of the pack.
9. Macedonia – this could end up looking ridiculous if they’re not careful. It’s another one that could do really well under the right circumstances. If my prediction comes true (cue uproarious laughter) it may dissuade FYROM from signing up for 2014, which sucks.
10. Belarus – it’s taken a lot to rank one of my favourites this low, but like I said earlier, I’ve had a bad feeling about Ilya’s chances over the last few days. This isn’t because I’ve heard bad things (in fact, I’ve heard very little about him, and isn’t a lack of news supposed to be good news?) but just because of what my gut is telling me. Apart from telling me I’m a little hungry, it’s saying Poy So Mnoy might get lost in the crowd.

11. Sweden – now here’s someone I’ve heard about. Specifically, I’ve heard about his vocal woes, which may have something to do with every JESC teen boy’s greatest fear: puberty. I had my doubts about this song’s chances even when it was possible Elias was going to deliver a vocal on par with Amaury Vassili. But now that it seems he’s destined to butcher his own composition (and first up too) I am sad to say that I think he’ll be somewhere at the bottom.
12. Moldova – one thing that is usually easy to predict in Junior is which country will come last. I mean, who didn’t see it happening to Albania last year from a mile away? Now, I adore Rafael’s song, but I’m under no illusions that he’s going to succeed, unless there’s some miracle, being that I am the only person I know who would throw the ‘L’ word at it.

Well, I’ve justified my choices, and there’s no going back now! What I will do now is make some smaller predictions about the performances (and maybe have another stab at picking the winner).

Best staging – visually, I’m expecting near-perfection from Armenia, Georgia and the Netherlands.

Best vocals – Sweden! Just kidding (poor Elias). Ukraine should be flawless, Moldova too if he can control himself. Georgia is always on point, and yes, I’ll admit that Malta will shine vocally. Shine and/or burst the eardrums of everybody sitting in the first few rows.

Best costumes – Armenia, Georgia and the Netherlands. Armenia’s will be elaborate and confectionary-themed, Georgia’s will be retro, and the Netherlands will most likely come to the party as cheerleaders.

The whole package – I’m talking vocals, costumes, charisma, dance moves, props AND lighting here. Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Georgia and Russia will be contenders for Package Deal of the Year.

Positive surprise – the country that will give a great performance that we’re not expecting? San Marino. And, if Elias’ voice has miraculously broken by tonight, maybe even Sweden.

Negative surprise – the country that won’t pull off as good a performance as we think? Armenia could be the one. Belarus too (noooooooo!) could crash and burn if Ilya can’t nail those high notes and choreography.

The winner…again – because I hate narrowing it down to one, I’m going to widen the scope. The Netherlands are definitely on my radar, but I also think we could see Armenia, Georgia, Malta or Russia take out the comp. That’s five potential winners, and now I’ve rattled them off you can expect to see Azerbaijan, Macedonia or any of the others that I didn’t mention win.

 

That’s about all I have to say before the show starts. There are so many reasons to look forward to it: the awesome stage; Zlata; the postcards; Emmelie, Anastasiya and Ruslana; the on-stage spokespersons; the exciting voting, and probably other stuff I’m forgetting. Well, there is also the knowledge that tonight’s winner will (allegedly) get the chance to appear at Eurovision 2014. Unlike myself. #pityparty

Odds are there’s at least one reason you should tune in, so do it, and enjoy it! I’ll be tweeting my pajama-clad butt off during the show @EurovisionByJaz, so maybe I’ll see you there.

Good luck to all of the kids, and may the best song win (so long as it’s not from Malta)! I’ll see you in a few days’ time for the annual JESC wrap-up.

 

Make your last-minute predictions, people! Who’s going to win Junior Eurovision 2013?

 

4 Responses to “JESC Month | Today’s the day! Ranking and predicting before Kyiv kicks off”

1. jamessayeresc December 1, 2013

   Really quick one cos it starts in 10 minutes omg – We predicted the same first and last place Jaz. It’s a sign. :’) Team Ilfia, wooo. Enjoy the show!

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• Jaz December 7, 2013

  And we were both wrong!! A problem shared is a problem halved 😛 Still, Team Ilfia prevailed in the end, as much as possible with Malta on the scene ruining our grand plans, MWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

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2. Annika November 30, 2013

   Hi Jaz! First comment in centuries. I’m sorry that I missed most of your JESC month special, but I’m so busy with uni. I did read your JESC rankings and all that and I’m sligtly sad that you ranked my favorite jesc song ever (Piši mi) below my least favorite jesc entry ever (the Armenian thing from last year) 😛
   I like your 2013 rankings, I’d switch Moldova with Azerbaijan though 😛 Moldova has grown on me , but it’s still my least fave this year.
   I’m really, really worried about Belarus now. I adore the song and the act and I don’t want it to fail, but I see most people have ranked it 8-10th so yeah 😦
   Enjoy the show 😀

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• Jaz December 7, 2013

  For some reason I’m only seeing this comment now…better late than never, as they say!!

  I figured you were bogged down with uni stuff. Poor you! IMO all tertiary institutions should allow breaks for Eurovision fans to enjoy Eurovision events. It’s like a religion, so…it makes sense. Right??

  I actually thought you may never speak to me again for even having Sweetie Baby in my top 50 XD

  HAHAHA, IN YOUR FACE EVERYONE WHO RANKED BELARUS LOW!!!!!!! Ahem. The 3rd place really shocked me, but in a good way. When they leapfrogged Russia at the last second it was EPIC!! The performance deserved it.

  I hope you did enjoy the show, in spite of the technical problems.

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